Market developments
The recent outbreak of the war in the Middle East is obviously the most discussed topic, also in the steel market. The price increases of oil, gas, gasoline and electricity are starting to influence steel prices as well. Mills are pushing up their price levels to compensate their higher energy costs. The effect on a longer term remains to be seen. The geopolitical situation is very uncertain and can change rapidly. Experts believe the effect on energy prices will not be as big as it was after the Russian invasion in Ukraine, when they skyrocketed.
Higher energy prices obviously influence the cost of transport as well. These cost have an effect throughout the supply chain. More about this in the chapter about transport costs further down this report.
In our latest report of October 2025, we reported extensively about CBAM to come into effect on January 1, 2026 and the uncertainties around it. Regrettably, three months later there still is a lot of unclarity about the accreditation process for the costs for imported CO₂ emissions, and no clear deadline.
The new Safeguard quota are expected to be announced by mid June, only shortly before the current Safeguard measures expire at July 1. Free import quotas will be reduced by nearly 50%, and import duties on exceeding volumes will be increased from 25% to 50%. When demand and export volumes remain unchanged, this would mean EU mills have to increase their production by 20% year on year to fill this gap. However, it is very unlikely that European mills will ramp up their production capacity at such a pace. They are expected to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, as the market can change so quickly. This may lead to supply shortages, and to imports exceeding the quota limits, all pushing prices up. This effect can be enhanced by price increases of Asian imports due to higher freight cost, if the war with Iran prolongs.
According to some analysts, we can expect a modest growth of steel tube demand in the EU this year. Growth will come from civil engineering markets due to local governments investing highly in infrastructure improvements. Other sectors with an expected growth are the defense industry and the power generation market. The developments in the Middle East once again show the importance of having other power sources available, like nuclear and renewables.
March 2026
Price development of hot-rolled coil
Price development of scrap
Sustainability news
Many steel producers are investing in more sustainable production methods and are building or adjusting their production facilities to reduce CO2 emissions. As soon as they are up and running, the availability of low emission pipe and tube products will improve significantly. We keep a close contact to our suppliers to monitor this progress.
In the meantime, we can offer low emission carbon steel tubes from stock under our brand Van Leeuwen Impact. For projects where using sustainable material is imperative and our stocks are not sufficient, please contact us. Together with the leading mills we can find customized solutions.
Availability and delivery times
The availability and lead times for tubes, fittings, and flanges is still good, and no shortages are expected on the short term. Our stocks are on the desired level. After the summer, when the new severe Safeguard Quota and higher import duties will come into effect, we may experience shortage of supply because EU mills cannot or won’t increase their production so fast. Van Leeuwen has strong relationships with the leading mills worldwide and we are monitoring the supply chain closely. Using our large stock facilities, we will anticipate shortages of supply as much as possible.
Transport Cost
Due to the situation in the Middle East, rates for shipping from Asia have started to increase, but not dramatically yet. The development will depend on the duration of the war and the availability of shipping routes. Due to rising gasoline prices, cost for local truck transport has increased significantly already.
Price developments of carbon steel products
Welded tubes
Prices of hot rolled coils have risen significantly over the last few months, as the graph above shows. Manufacturers of welded tubes have therefore increased their prices a few times this year already. The price increases of HRC have been mainly caused by CBAM and Safeguard regulations, both influencing the import of HRC from outside the EU. The effects of the conflict in the Middle East, leading to higher transport cost, will come on top of this. Further price increases are to be expected, especially after the new Safeguard regulation will come into effect.
Seamless tubes
After the price increases we have seen in the first quarter of this year, the crisis in the Middle East and the resulting sharp energy price increases are leading to more pressure from the mills to increase their prices. For the production of seamless tubes, the energy price has a bigger impact compared to the production of welded tubes. Beside higher energy cost, we expect that the import restrictions imposed by the Safeguard regulation will push up prices further.
Manufacturers of fittings and flanges are being hit hard by U.S. import duties. Orders are either not coming in or are being accepted at significantly lower prices. Prices for base materials such as billet or plate remain stable, so we do not expect any notable changes in Europe in the short term.
Royal Van Leeuwen More than tubes.
Van Leeuwen Buizen Groep B.V.
Adres:
Telefoon:
E-mail:
Lindtsedijk 120, 3336 LE Zwijndrecht
078 625 25 25
vlptg@vanleeuwen.nl
Van Leeuwen
More than tubes.
Lindtsedijk 100, 3336 LE Zwijndrecht, Netherlands
+31 78 625 25 25
sales@vanleeuwen.nl
www.vanleeuwen.com
P. van Leeuwen Jr.'s Buizenhandel B.V.
Address:
Phone:
E-mail:
Web:
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© Royal Van Leeuwen 2026
Many steel producers are investing in more sustainable production methods and are building or adjusting their production facilities to reduce CO2 emissions. As soon as they are up and running, the availability of low emission pipe and tube products will improve significantly. We keep a close contact to our suppliers to monitor this progress.
In the meantime, we can offer low emission carbon steel tubes from stock under our brand Van Leeuwen Impact. For projects where using sustainable material is imperative and our stocks are not sufficient, please contact us. Together with the leading mills we can find customized solutions.
Transport Cost
Due to the situation in the Middle East, rates for shipping from Asia have started to increase, but not dramatically yet. The development will depend on the duration of the war and the availability of shipping routes. Due to rising gasoline prices, cost for local truck transport has increased significantly already.
Sustainability news
Last month, the European Commission took an important decision “to fund research for breakthrough technologies leading to near-zero-carbon steelmaking, as well as projects for managing the just transition for coal mines”. Read more about this program here: Research Program of the Research Fund for Coal and Steel (RFCS).
This program turns out to be part of a much bigger initiative from the EU which was announced on February 26: the “Clean Industrial Deal”. In this deal the Commission outlines three main objectives: ensure affordable energy, boost the demand for clean products and finance the clean transition. For this last objective, an “industrial decarbonisation bank” of 100 million Euro should be set up. Many companies want to invest in the clean energy transition, they often have very concrete plans, but fail to get the business case positive. This fund will therefore be a very important part to boost the energy transition,
Within these three objectives, more plans have been worked out. On of them is to improve efficiency and effectiveness of the existing CBAM regulation. This Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has been created to prevent carbon leakage at EU borders, which could occur by relocating carbon intensive production to less carbon-regulated countries. It should also stimulate more sustainable production methods within the EU.
Availability and delivery times
The availability and lead times for tubes, fittings, and flanges is still good, and no shortages are expected on the short term. Our stocks are on the desired level. After the summer, when the new severe Safeguard Quota and higher import duties will come into effect, we may experience shortage of supply because EU mills cannot or won’t increase their production so fast. Van Leeuwen has strong relationships with the leading mills worldwide and we are monitoring the supply chain closely. Using our large stock facilities, we will anticipate shortages of supply as much as possible.
Price developments of carbon steel products
Welded tubes
Prices of hot rolled coils have risen significantly over the last few months, as the graph above shows. Manufacturers of welded tubes have therefore increased their prices a few times this year already. The price increases of HRC have been mainly caused by CBAM and Safeguard regulations, both influencing the import of HRC from outside the EU. The effects of the conflict in the Middle East, leading to higher transport cost, will come on top of this. Further price increases are to be expected, especially after the new Safeguard regulation will come into effect.
Seamless tubes
After the price increases we have seen in the first quarter of this year, the crisis in the Middle East and the resulting sharp energy price increases are leading to more pressure from the mills to increase their prices. For the production of seamless tubes, the energy price has a bigger impact compared to the production of welded tubes. Beside higher energy cost, we expect that the import restrictions imposed by the Safeguard regulation will push up prices further.
Manufacturers of fittings and flanges are being hit hard by U.S. import duties. Orders are either not coming in or are being accepted at significantly lower prices. Prices for base materials such as billet or plate remain stable, so we do not expect any notable changes in Europe in the short term.
Price development of hot-rolled coil
Price development of scrap
Market developments
The recent outbreak of the war in the Middle East is obviously the most discussed topic, also in the steel market. The price increases of oil, gas, gasoline and electricity are starting to influence steel prices as well. Mills are pushing up their price levels to compensate their higher energy costs. The effect on a longer term remains to be seen. The geopolitical situation is very uncertain and can change rapidly. Experts believe the effect on energy prices will not be as big as it was after the Russian invasion in Ukraine, when they skyrocketed.
Higher energy prices obviously influence the cost of transport as well. These cost have an effect throughout the supply chain. More about this in the chapter about transport costs further down this report.
In our latest report of October 2025, we reported extensively about CBAM to come into effect on January 1, 2026 and the uncertainties around it. Regrettably, three months later there still is a lot of unclarity about the accreditation process for the costs for imported CO₂ emissions, and no clear deadline.
The new Safeguard quota are expected to be announced by mid June, only shortly before the current Safeguard measures expire at July 1. Free import quotas will be reduced by nearly 50%, and import duties on exceeding volumes will be increased from 25% to 50%. When demand and export volumes remain unchanged, this would mean EU mills have to increase their production by 20% year on year to fill this gap. However, it is very unlikely that European mills will ramp up their production capacity at such a pace. They are expected to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, as the market can change so quickly. This may lead to supply shortages, and to imports exceeding the quota limits, all pushing prices up. This effect can be enhanced by price increases of Asian imports due to higher freight cost, if the war with Iran prolongs.
According to some analysts, we can expect a modest growth of steel tube demand in the EU this year. Growth will come from civil engineering markets due to local governments investing highly in infrastructure improvements. Other sectors with an expected growth are the defense industry and the power generation market. The developments in the Middle East once again show the importance of having other power sources available, like nuclear and renewables.
© Royal Van Leeuwen 2026
Royal Van Leeuwen More than tubes.
Lindtsedijk 120, 3336 LE Zwijndrecht
078 625 25 25
vlptg@vanleeuwen.nl
March 2026